Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable by James A. Dewar

By James A. Dewar

Unwelcome surprises within the lifetime of any association can usually be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's management did not count on or had "forgotten". Assumption-based making plans (ABP) is a device for making a choice on as many as attainable assumptions underlying the plans of a company and bringing them explicitly into the making plans approach. This ebook provides numerous concepts for rooting out these susceptible, an important assumptions. It additionally provides steps for tracking the weak assumptions of a plan via taking activities to regulate them the place attainable and getting ready for strength failure the place keep an eye on isn't really attainable.

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Extra resources for Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)

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Before then, it made sense to project the Soviet Union, with its known capabilities and its projected technologies, as the primary strategic problem. After 1989, it made more sense for the Army to adopt a more IPB-like approach to the strategic future as well. See Builder and Dewar (1994). A taxonomy of assumptions 19 Implicit vs. explicit assumptions The primary goal of Assumption-Based Planning is to make sure that as many as possible of the load-bearing assumptions underlying a plan have been made explicit and have been confronted.

Though it was painful], the healthiest thing for the industry was for the top guys to understand as distinctly as possible what a mess the industry had gotten into. There are any number of reasons why some of the assumptions underlying a plan are implicit. ” For example, market research could determine something important about customers in a given income bracket that is explicitly dealt with in the organization’s plans. Over time, and without further market research, the organization may have come to depend on that original characterization even as the buying habits of those in the income bracket are changing significantly.

1 In fairness, we have argued that the Army did not really have an uncertain strategic future until the Berlin Wall fell. Before then, it made sense to project the Soviet Union, with its known capabilities and its projected technologies, as the primary strategic problem. After 1989, it made more sense for the Army to adopt a more IPB-like approach to the strategic future as well. See Builder and Dewar (1994). A taxonomy of assumptions 19 Implicit vs. explicit assumptions The primary goal of Assumption-Based Planning is to make sure that as many as possible of the load-bearing assumptions underlying a plan have been made explicit and have been confronted.

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